Saturday, November 04, 2006

Senate Balance of Power: GOP 49 Dems 49 Toss-Up 2

On the final Saturday of Election 2006, the race for control of the Senate is tied.

The Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power summary now rates 49 seats as Democrat or Leans Democrat and 49 seats as Republican or Leans Republican and two as Toss-Ups. The two remaining Toss-Ups are both seats defended by incumbent Republicans¬óJim Talent in Missouri and George Allen in Virginia. See our complete State-by-State Summary.

Today, Rasmussen Reports is switching Tennessee from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Republican" Yesterday, we switched two states (New Jersey and Montana) from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Democrat." All three of these races are now back to where they were when the season began.

Today, we are also switching Ohio from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat." Rhode Island and Maryland remain as "Leans Democrat."

If all of the races go as expected, Democrats would have to win both of the remaining Toss-Ups to reach the magic number of 51 seats to gain control of the Senate. If the Democrats win just one Toss-Up, there would be a 50-50 tie. In that circumstance, Vice-President Dick Cheney would cast the deciding vote in his Constitutional role as the presiding officer of the Senate.

Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (D) is now running for re-election as a Independent after losing a Primary Campaign to Ned Lamont (D). However, this race has no impact on the Senate Balance of Power considerations since whichever candidate wins will line up as a Democrat when the Senate convenes next January.

History of Changes

On October 30, we shifted Washington from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat"

On October 20, we shifted the Montana Senate race from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss-Up"

On October 16, we shifted the Virginia Senate race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-Up"

On October 13, 2006, we shifted the Tennessee Senate race from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss-Up"

On October 10, we shifted the Pennsylvania Senate race from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat."

On October 9, we shifted Michigan and Minnesota from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat."

On October 2, we shifted Tennessee from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Democrat."

On September 25, we shifted Washington from "Democrat" to "Leans Democrat"

On September 18, Montana, Rhode Island, and Ohio all shifted from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Democrat."

On September 12, Washington shifted from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat."

On September 8, Tennessee moved from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-Up."

On September 6, New Jersey shifted from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss-Up."

On September 5, Rhode Island moved from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss-Up."

On the first day of September, Rasmussen Reports changed the Minnesota Senate race from "Democrat" to "Leans Democrat."

On August 25, we shifted Pennsylvania from "Democrat" to "Leans Democrat." Santorum remains the nation's most vulnerable incumbent, but he has closed to within single digits.

On August 24, Washington moved from "Democrat" to "Leans Democrat."

On August 18, in the wake of controversial remarks by Senator George Allen, Virginia changed from "Republican" to "Leans Republican

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