Democratic Surge Went Well Beyond Flipped Seats

By Greg Giroux
Congressional Quarterly
Jan. 19, 2007

Most politics watchers know the most crucial statistics from the 2006 upsurge that boosted Democrats into control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The party gained 30 seats last year, with Democrats claiming 233 seats — 15 more than they needed to end a Republican House majority that had reigned for a dozen years.

But the strong tide running against Republican candidates in the 2006 midterm elections also had an impact below the surface — as highlighted in a chart prepared by CQPolitics.com senior reporter Greg Giroux.

The chart shows that many of the Republican candidates who won their 2006 elections nonetheless saw their vote shares plunge below the levels normally enjoyed by GOP candidates in their districts.

Conversely, many Democrats registered overwhelming and often above-average vote shares.

The chart shows that nearly half of all House Republican winners — 96 of 202, or 47.5 percent — took less than 60 percent of the vote in the election. But more than four-fifths of the Democratic victors — 188 of 233, or 80.7 percent — actually exceeded that 60 percent threshold.

The chart shows that 36 House Republicans and 32 House Democrats won with less than 55 percent of the vote (including seven Republicans and one Democrat who won with less than a majority of votes), an arbitrary threshold that some strategists and analysts use to measure candidate vulnerability in ensuing elections.

The vast majority of those 32 Democrats took over seats that had been defended by Republicans, and strategists of both parties will be focusing their attentions on many of their districts in the 2008 election.

The Republicans did not capture a single House seat defended by Democrats, so all 36 of these close GOP wins came in districts that the party was defending.

The only Democratic winner to take less than a majority of all votes was businessman Tim Mahoney of Florida’s usually Republican-leaning 16th District. Mahoney — who won in the wake of the personal scandal that forced incumbent Republican Rep. Mark Foley to resign from Congress and quit the race — took 49.5 percent of the vote to narrowly defeat Republican state Rep. Joe Negron, who had 47.7 percent of the vote.

The following is a list of the seven House Republicans who prevailed with less than a majority of votes cast in their district:

• Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, of Colorado’s 4th District, won with 45.6 percent. She defeated Democrat Angie Paccione (43.1 percent) and Reform Party candidate Eric Eidsness (11.3 percent).

• Rep. Barbara Cubin, of Wyoming’s At-Large district, won with 48.3 percent. She defeated Democrat Gary Trauner (47.7 percent).

• Rep. Jon Porter, of Nevada’s 3rd District, won with 48.5 percent. She defeated Democrat Tessa Hafen (46.6 percent).

• Rep. John T. Doolittle, of California’s 4th District, won with 49.1 percent. He defeated Democrat Charlie Brown (45.9 percent).

• Rep. Mike Ferguson, of New Jersey’s 7th District, won with 49.4 percent. He defeated Democrat Linda Stender (47.9 percent).

• Bill Sali, of Idaho’s 1st District, won with 49.9 percent. He defeated Democrat Larry Grant (44.8 percent) in the race for the seat left open by Republican C.L. “Butch” Otter, who staged a successful bid for governor of Idaho.

• Tim Walberg, of Michigan’s 7th District, won with 49.9 percent. He defeated Democrat Sharon Renier (46.0 percent) for the seat of Republican incumbent Joe Schwarz, whom Walberg had defeated in the GOP primary.